Yomiel and Knightley, Day 01, afternoon-ish

[schrodingers_man]

[ Sometime in the afternoon, Yomiel approaches Knightley. His demeanor is notably different from what it was yesterday; then he had seemed more casually disinterested than anything, but after this morning, there's an air of grim determination about him. ]

Knightley. Got some time? I'd like to hear what you think about this game's structure. Privately, if you don't mind.

Comments

[staunton]

[ To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Knightley will be found setting up a chess problem. ]

Sure. Your room or mine?

[schrodingers_man]

Mine's probably closer.

[ It's right near the hall back to the Central Hub, after all. Gotta get first dibs on the hygiene sector in the morning. Priorities. Regardless, he'll lead the way, and once he shuts the door behind him, he speaks. ]

The combination of strategy and bluffing is probably more poker than chess, but I figure your skills could still be relevant. I don't know your role and you don't know mine, so let's treat this like yesterday's chess problem and talk about the best moves for both sides to take.

[staunton]

Good idea. Unlike chess, this is a game of imperfect information, and we have to make our decisions based on incomplete knowledge in order to achieve victory.

[schrodingers_man]

Then let's start with the information we do know.

[ Yomiel takes out his PDC and flips through the rules and roles. ]

There are 19 of us left: 13 Citizens and 6 Communists. To be more specific, we have one Loyalty Officer, one Defense Officer, one Troubleshooter, one Survivor, a pair of Partners, and 7 regular Citizens versus one Inhibitor, one Scanner, one Indoctrinator, and 3 regular Communists. The Citizens have the advantage of numbers, but the Communists have the advantage of trust. Citizens only know their own roles, but the Communists know who each other are and have no reason to hide their special roles from one another. They can discuss as a group who to eliminate, investigate, and protect, but on the Citizen's side, elimination is discussed by everyone, including the Communists, and investigation and protection are left to only one person to decide, unless they decide to take a risk and bring someone into their confidence.

[staunton]

[ Knightley takes out his own PDC; it never hurts to read over the text again. ]

Right. Let's talk about the Communists and their moves. The Loyalty Officer and the Defense Officer are the rooks and queens who pose the biggest threat on the board, so naturally they want to eliminate those two as soon as possible.

[schrodingers_man]

But first they have to find them, unless they happen to make a lucky guess with their eliminations. That's the Scanner's job. We don't know if roles were assigned randomly or not, but without any other information to go off of, starting with people who have the right skills is as good a bet as anything.

[ He switches his PDC over to the list of profiles and scrolls through them, lingering on a few. ]

People with skills involving investigation or defense are Bobby Fullbright, Curly Brace, and... yourself. Of course, if you expand the definition of "defense" to include combat, the list gets a lot longer.

[ You people are making him look bad, geeze. He'll have you know he's a really good programmer...! At least he's not Simon. ]

[staunton]

If you ask me, I think they were assigned randomly; it'd make it easier for the Communists to win if there's a pattern to how the roles were given.

[ Don't talk shit about Simon. :|b ]

But you're right, it's as good a bet as any for the Scanner to start with the people who have those skills. And if the results are negative, then they're just regular Citizens who they don't have to eliminate as quickly as possible.

[schrodingers_man]

Of course, even if they scan positive, it's no guarantee they actually have a dangerous role. It's not a problem for the Communists, since they can always try again, but the Survivor and Partners got a really unlucky draw.

The only other strategy besides guessing at random is to pay close attention at trials, see who's trying to avoid drawing attention to themselves. I don't think it'd get any results today, though. I can't imagine anybody's going to disagree with eliminating Moge-ko.

[ He still can't believe the Communists didn't pick her last night. ]

[staunton]

Everyone's gonna gun for that girl, 'cuz she's a loose cannon and a nuisance. And, to be honest, I think she's one of our Communists. The Indoctrinator was pretty impatient and didn't save their power for later; if Moge-ko is one of them and they know she's gonna get eliminated, recruiting somebody on the first night would keep their numbers steady.

[schrodingers_man]

[ Yomiel mulls over that for a moment. ]

It's definitely strange that the Indoctrinator would fire their single bullet so early, instead of saving it. If they fired it after, say, the Loyalty Officer was forced to reveal themselves to identify a Communist, they could've used it as a weapon to discredit them. But maybe they just weren't thinking that far ahead. No matter which way you look at it, it's a pretty short-sighted decision.

[staunton]

Indeed. But, moving on... We've examined the Communists' poorly thought out opening move, so let's talk about the Citizens. If the Defense Officer and Loyalty Officer were to work together, it would be ideal for their side. The Loyalty Officer could out themselves and remain protected while striking against the Communists without fear of retribution.

[schrodingers_man]

Of course, they have no way of knowing who the other is, and the Loyalty Officer would be a fool to reveal themselves without knowing they can depend on the Defense Officer. After all, the Loyalty Officer is the Citizens' most important piece. They're the only source the Citizens have for information about their enemy.

Either way, it's pretty pointless for them to reveal themselves before they have any useful information.

[staunton]

The early conversion benefits the Loyalty Officer somewhat.

[ He paces around the room as he speaks, running a hand through his hair. ]

If they have a Citizen to relay information through, the Indoctrinator won't be able to draw out their identity by converting the Citizen. Of course, the Communists could easily sever the flow of information by eliminating that person.

[schrodingers_man]

In that case, the Loyalty Officer could just pick someone else, couldn't they? If they even picked someone to relay results through in the first place. As long as the Inhibitor's on the board, the Loyalty Officer can't fully trust anyone, even if their investigation shows them as a Citizen.

[staunton]

Yeah. With the Inhibitor around, it's a gamble. But you don't win at chess if you make safe, cautious moves every time. Bold moves are necessary.

[ Knightley, do you have to compare everything to chess? ]

[schrodingers_man]

If it was me, I think I'd put my trust in the unseen Defense Officer and reveal myself openly instead. It's a gamble either way, so which one the Loyalty Officer picks is probably just up to their personal preference.